This is the second installment in a six-part series on designing and building profitable EV charging stations.

In Part 1, we explored how to identify areas with the highest charging demand today. But charging infrastructure isn't a short-term play. You're making investment decisions that will unfold over five, seven, or ten years. The site that looks marginal today might be a winner in 2030. The hot market of 2025 might be saturated by 2028.

Forecasting growth is essential. It's also humbling, because no one can predict the future with certainty. What we can do is understand the key drivers of change, model their interactions, and build flexibility into our assumptions.

Forecasting growth is essential. It's also humbling, because no one can predict the future with certainty. What we can do is understand the key drivers of change, model their interactions, and build flexibility into our assumptions.

EV adoption: the primary driver

Let's start with the obvious: more electric vehicles means more charging demand. The trajectory here is clear, even if the exact numbers are debated. U.S. EV sales grew from just over 500,000 in 2020 to 1.6 million in 2024, and projections suggest 4 million or more by 2030. Market share is expected to rise from around 9% today to somewhere between 25-30% by the end of the decade.

These numbers matter enormously for site selection. A location that seems underserved today might be perfectly positioned for a market that's about to triple in size. Conversely, a site that looks busy now might become one of many options as infrastructure catches up to demand.

But here's the nuance: EV adoption growth isn't uniform. Some markets are further along the adoption curve than others. California is already past 25% EV penetration in new car sales; other states are still in single digits. Growth rates in lagging markets may actually exceed mature markets over the next five years, even if absolute numbers remain lower. Your forecast needs to account for local trajectories, not just national averages.

Competition is growing too

EV adoption isn't happening in isolation. The charging industry is responding with aggressive infrastructure buildout. The U.S. fast charging network expanded by over 20% in just the first half of 2025, with a clear shift toward higher-capacity stations. The share of 250+ kW chargers rose from 24% to 38% in a single year.

What does this mean for your growth forecast? You're not just projecting how many EVs will need charging. You're projecting your share of that demand in an increasingly competitive market.

A site that's the only fast charger for miles today won't stay that way. Your competitors are reading the same adoption forecasts and planning their own expansion. A robust growth model needs to account for likely competitive entry and how it will divide the growing pie.

This creates an interesting dynamic: in some markets, demand growth will outpace infrastructure buildout, improving utilization over time. In others, infrastructure investment will run ahead of demand, increasing competition before the market catches up. Understanding which scenario applies to your target markets is critical.

The demographic shift

Here's where forecasting gets more interesting. To date, EV adoption has been concentrated at the luxury end of the market. Early adopters skew toward higher incomes, single-family homes with garages, and the ability to install home charging. These buyers do most of their charging at home, using public infrastructure primarily for long trips.

But the economics are changing. Vehicle costs are coming down, with sub-$30,000 EVs finally reaching the U.S. market in meaningful numbers. The used EV market is maturing, making EVs accessible to buyers who would not purchase new vehicles. Lifetime cost of ownership for EVs is now lower than gas vehicles in the U.S. when you factor in fuel and maintenance savings.

As EVs move downmarket, the buyer profile shifts dramatically. Mass-market buyers are more likely to live in apartments or rentals without dedicated parking. They're more likely to rely on public charging as their primary source, not a backup. Remember from Part 1: only 5% of rental properties offer EV charging, yet 35% of households rent.

This demographic transition means public charging demand may grow even faster than the vehicle fleet. The first 10 million EVs in the U.S. were disproportionately owned by people who charge at home. The next 20 million will include a much larger share of drivers who depend on public infrastructure.

For your forecast, this is critical. A model that simply extrapolates current charging behavior per vehicle will underestimate future public charging demand. You need to account for how the composition of the EV fleet is changing, not just its size.

Beyond demand: how power evolution affects throughput

Forecasting isn't just about how many vehicles will need charging. It's also about how much energy those vehicles will consume per session and how quickly your infrastructure can deliver it. This is where power evolution enters the picture.

Battery technology is advancing rapidly. We're seeing breakthroughs in charging speeds that would have seemed impossible just a few years ago: major manufacturers are now demonstrating the ability to add hundreds of miles of range in five minutes. More importantly for station economics, charging curves are getting flatter. Vehicles can sustain higher power levels for longer portions of the charge cycle.

This matters more than peak charging speeds. A vehicle that can hit 350 kW for thirty seconds before tapering down delivers less energy than one that sustains 250 kW throughout the session. What matters is average power across the full charging curve, because that determines how much energy you can deliver per hour of charger utilization..

Here's the implication: the same physical infrastructure will deliver more energy over time as vehicles improve. A 350 kW charger serving 2025 vehicles might average 80 kW delivered. Serving 2030 vehicles with better battery technology, that same charger might average 150 kW or even 200 kW. Your throughput increases without adding hardware.

But there's a flip side: station crowding. If each session delivers more energy in less time, you need fewer chargers per unit of energy demand. But you also need to think about peak congestion differently. Faster sessions mean higher turnover, which can improve utilization but also creates different traffic patterns. Your forecast needs to model both energy throughput and session dynamics.

Modeling uncertainty

Here's the honest truth about forecasting growth: no one knows exactly how these variables will evolve. Will EV adoption hit 25% by 2030, or 35%, or stall at 20%? Will battery technology continue its rapid improvement, or will progress slow? Will your target market see aggressive competitive entry, or will infrastructure lag behind demand?

Anyone who claims certainty is selling something. The responsible approach is to model multiple scenarios and understand how your investment performs across a range of futures.

This is the approach we've built into Stable. Our forecasting models incorporate EV adoption trajectories, competitive dynamics, demographic shifts, and power evolution. But instead of giving you a single number, we give you control over the input assumptions.

Want to see how your portfolio performs under aggressive EV adoption versus conservative? Adjust the assumption. Concerned about competitive entry in a specific market? Model it. Curious how faster charging vehicles will affect your throughput projections? Test it.

This flexibility isn't about hedging or avoiding accountability. It's about giving you the tools to make informed decisions when the future is genuinely uncertain. A site that performs well across multiple scenarios is a more defensible investment than one that requires everything to go right.

What's next

Understanding demand, both today's and tomorrow's, is the foundation of site selection. But profitability depends on more than utilization. In Part 3, we'll turn to a factor that can make or break your economics: estimating energy costs.

Ready to model growth scenarios for your portfolio?

Stable Evaluate lets you test different EV adoption, competition, and technology assumptions to see how your sites perform across multiple futures. Build forecasts that account for uncertainty, not ones that pretend it doesn’t exist.

Get started with Stable Evaluate for free

In this series:

Part 1: Choosing areas with the highest demand
Part 2: Forecasting growth (this post)

Coming soon:
Part 3: Estimating energy costs
Part 4: Optimizing available incentives
Part 5: Station sizing
Part 6: Amenities and perks